TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF INDEX CRIMES IN ILOILO CITY
FOR THE YEARS 2000-2006
by
Kim Jan Golez
Alvin Mark B. Navio
Abstract
This study entitled “Time Series Analysis of Index Crimes in Iloilo City for the Years 2000-2006” aimed to describe the time trend of the Crime Solution Efficiency, index crime rate as a whole, and separately for murder, homicide, physical injury, theft, and robbery. This study further aimed to generate a time series model for the Average Crime Rate for Index Crimes. The researchers used secondary data from the Iloilo City Police Office (ICPO). The data were encoded and analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software. Line graphs, autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, and ARIMA were the tools used in analyzing the distribution of the data over time. The Crime Solution Efficiency showed an increasing trend, while the crime rate for murder showed a decreasing trend. Average Crime Rate for Index Crimes and Crime Rate for physical injury showed a seasonal variation while crime rates for theft, robbery and homicide showed irregular patterns. ARMA(5,0,5) was obtained to model the Average Crime Rate for Index Crimes which is
