Time Series Analysis of Index Crimes

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF INDEX CRIMES IN ILOILO CITY

FOR THE YEARS 2000-2006

by

Kim Jan Golez

Alvin Mark B. Navio

Abstract

This study entitled “Time Series Analysis of Index Crimes in Iloilo City for the Years 2000-2006” aimed to describe the time trend of the Crime Solution Efficiency, index crime rate as a whole, and separately for murder, homicide, physical injury, theft, and robbery. This study further aimed to generate a time series model for the Average Crime Rate for Index Crimes. The researchers used secondary data from the Iloilo City Police Office (ICPO). The data were encoded and analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software. Line graphs, autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, and ARIMA were the tools used in analyzing the distribution of the data over time. The Crime Solution Efficiency showed an increasing trend, while the crime rate for murder showed a decreasing trend. Average Crime Rate for Index Crimes and Crime Rate for physical injury showed a seasonal variation while crime rates for theft, robbery and homicide showed irregular patterns. ARMA(5,0,5) was obtained to model the Average Crime Rate for Index Crimes which is

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This site esstatistica.wordpress.com also served very helpful inspiration to create new domain using wordpress as my platform. I hope that this blog will still last for a lifetime. And to all costumers thank for your valuable support to our services.

Just because you had finished one thesis/dissertation means you can be a statistician

It just doesn’t take the cut that one can be considered a statistician just because one is a Masters/Doctorate Graduate in a Non-Statistics related course.

And I say that in good way and not to offend people who feel they were offended or close to being offended.

We stat graduates have worked blood, sweat and tears in enduring every Research Papers that are needed to be passed in EACH of our Major subjects in College. We can’t call it Quality Research works but there is that learning factor that we take in every wrong analysis we make, in every mistyped characters, in every missed pages, and in every money, time and effort we spend not only in front of a computer but in the field as well. All these experiences we have learned, we are learning and will be learning  in the future makes us what we are today….a statistician…..

We worked hard in every formula we need to understand, in every painstaking Parametric and Non-Parametric Distributions we need to we need to derive,for every data we encode in the computer, and for the times we used to fear exams because one question comprises of almost 4 HOURS of computations, thinking, analyzing and sweating that will compose our grade for that subject.

Statistics….we are not yet on the level where we can say that we are the best statisticians the world has to offer. But I can safely say that we know we can go on par or even better than Masters or even Doctorate Graduates statistically speaking.

We just don’t say “there is no significant difference…”. We explain why and we explain it in a concise manner with almost no numerical data involved. We just don’t look at numbers as a a number we see it as a soul that represents what is to be represented and it speaks for itself

We just don’t do it for fame’s sake. We do it because we love to do it.

We are statisticians! We know we are significantly different from others! And that is because we DARE to be different!

Time for a change……

An alter ego?….nope………just another partner statistician…..Alvin at your service……I was tasked to manage the site by my boss Elv…..

So on with the introduction…..

I am Alvin Mark Navio a Bachelor of Science in Statistics and Research graduate from West Visayas State University Batch 2007. I am currently taking up Masters in Management at University of the Philippines Visayas and I am in my first year as a Management student. I once took Master of Arts in Mathematics at West Visayas State University but I decided to quit before I go insane.

My first job was at West Visayas State University as a Statistical Analyst/Laborer (which means Job Order). I was assigned at the Managment Information Systems and I worked majorly with IT Professionals. Working with them I have learned a few about Programming (C++, C# and a little bit of PhP), Systems Analyst( QA), Database Systems ( MS SQL and MySQL), Adobe Photoshop, and Simple Computer Repairs ( Reformatting, etc.) . I worked there for about a year or so.

My present job is at John B. Lacson Foundation – Molo Unit at the CRCA Department as a Statistician/Clerk (an upgrade from laborer). My usual work is making  statistical reports using data gathered from the students that took the exams made by the CRCA – AAC Department. Its like quality control but only using students’ exam results as data.

My future job?….a CEO of a Multi Million Dollar Company…..a Rock Star!….an actuarian…..a programmer….a web designer…..a Music Teacher….a musician in a Religious Organization….a Father….or anything I can dream of…..

I love my work as a statistician and I am finding ways on how to merge everything that I have learned, is still learning and will learn in the future in my field of work. I also love meeting new people through my work as a statistician and making new friends out of it in the process.

I have always believed that one has to find the job where one is happy. And mind you a statistician is all I can hope for as job. I enjoy my job and hopefully by reading this you could get a glimpse of a lighter side of me.

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Statistics Book

It published various statistical-related-issues on divorce statistics, baseball statistics, and world statistics. Posting interesting topics in different fields and angles of theories, opinions, facts, and scientific explanation on how things are significantly correlated, different, and determined.

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We are Statisticians and Researchers from prominent and credible Universities. We work as a Team to construct good output by sharing knowledge and idea in every research works. We are skilled and well-experienced Professionals working in different companies and schools providing statistical services. Some Statisticians and Researchers have been taking Master’s Degree and Doctor’s Degree.

We specialized on data analysis and interpretation (categorical analysis or non-parametric and parametric analysis), qualitative and quantitative research, structural modeling of data.(multivariate analysis, regression analysis, time series analysis, logistics regression), item analysis, research consultation (thesis or dissertation), field researchers (depending on study undertaken), statistical quality control (SQL), time and project scheduling, and sampling techniques, clinical or experimental study. We have been accomplished many research works for an affordable cost and efficient quality.

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• analyze data from a scientific research project using optimal statistical methods to obtain sound and comprehensive conclusions

• prepare an exemplary scientific research report or grant application with easy-to-understand discussion and graphics.

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The primary statistical program we used are Statistical Software for Social Sciences (SPSS) and Microsoft Excel (Spread Sheet).

Contact Me

Alvin Mark Navio

Statistician

John B. Lacson Colleges Foundation

Mc Arthur Highway, Molo, Iloilo City, 5000, Philippines

Email or YM: kurimaw18@yahoo.com

Phone Number: +63-9153287662

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